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Views on the impact of China-US trade frictions
2019-05-22 

Editor's note: The trade frictions between China and the US have intensified these days after the United States barred Huawei and its affiliates from buying US technology without government approval due to security concerns, as well as increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports earlier this month.

Here we present a collection of views on the impact of the trade frictions.

Emmanuel Daniel, chairman of The Asian Banker [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

It is heartening to note that there is a circular argument underway. When the US blocks Huawei, it also blocks its own export of chips to China, which in turn has kept chip prices down. So it was never a zero-sum game to begin with.

Research by the GSMA suggests that the onset of 5G can conservatively increase global GDP by $565 billion and $152 billion in tax revenue by 2034, producing 25 percent of the value created by millimeter-wave spectrum. I don't see why the US should frustrate potential global growth prospects in these areas except to protect the failure of its own corporate sector to influence the process.

Roberta Lipson, director of the US China Business Council and CEO of United Family Healthcare. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

Over the last 40 years through the efforts of both sides, China and the US have gone from little mutual understanding and appreciation, to greater interaction in every sphere of life. This interaction has brought great benefit to both countries and their peoples. The relationship, however, is complex and of great importance. It is not surprising there would be setbacks and misunderstandings along the way. During this time I have witnessed great progress and many instances where dialogue and prolonged efforts have resolved difficult problems.

When there are not orderly mechanisms to resolve issues, the people of both countries will be hurt — as US farmers and purveyors of American specialty goods such as Kentucky bourbon are. In my own field, Chinese patients might not get the benefit of the latest technologies, because tariffs have made them prohibitively expensive. American consumers may also soon see their cost of living increase, because Chinese-made goods will become pricier.

The race to the bottom in a tariff war would hurt both countries and their people, and not solve the problems at hand.

Steven Ciobo, Australia's trade, tourism and investment minister from 2017 to 2018. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

Australia is committed to the goals of trade liberalization. A negotiated outcome consistent with global trade rules would be the best outcome for both sides and for the region. A trade war would have no winners.

Daryl Guppy, president of the North Territory office for the Australia China Business Council. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

Experience shows American government advisers are unwitting masters of one of the 36 strategies – "Feign madness but keep your balance." The defense against this is to continue negotiation, even when it appears this is without hope. In these negotiations it will be necessary to "toss out a stone to get a jade". The peaceful settlement of this disagreement is the key long-term objective.

All levels of engagement by business and policymakers should be increased so a more sophisticated understanding of China can be a foundation for policy and trade discussion.

China's economy contributes 27 percent to world economic growth, versus the US contribution of 12.3 percent, according to calculations by Bloomberg. Working with the United States is important, but the development of the Belt and Road Initiative will become more significant as alternative markets expand. Time and history is on China's side. Today progress may be slow, but slow progress is better than no progress.

Geoff Raby, Australian ambassador to China from 2007 to 2011. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

The US is acting unilaterally, and whether or not it is found to be in breach of its WTO commitments its behavior is against the principles of the multilateral trading system.

To the extent it harms the rules-based system, this should be of concern to all countries, not only China. All countries, including Australia, need to be urging the United States to adhere to the norms of the system that has served the international community so well for the past 70 years.

Inevitably it will be resolved through negotiations and diplomacy, but at what time and cost to every nation remains to be seen.

John Brumby, ACBC national president and former premier of Victoria. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

Protectionist policies are very shortsighted. While they may have short-term political appeal, in the long term they drag countries to the bottom and guarantee lower living standards. We now live in a highly interconnected globalized digital economy. Protectionist policies impact the entire world trade system and matters can escalate very quickly. Ultimately, there are no winners in a global trade war.

Ron Zheng, partner of Roland Berger. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

The current trade conflict is hitting the Chinese auto market hard as the worsening situation challenges consumer confidence pertaining to the direction of economic development. Automakers from the US will definitely be heavily impacted as they are the pioneers among international OEMs to have a global network of vehicle R&D as well as manufacturing, both export and import, which will also be impacted.

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