Physical Basis of Dynamical Analogue Prediction;

An objective analogue prediction model of tropical cyclone track is brought forward that considers the synthetical evaluation environment.

Base on the theory and method of analog forecast,with routine weather data, the paper made the experiment to forecast quantitatively the typhoon track by using the gray data from weather satellite.

The analog forecast used the analog c riterion of analog distance.

To solve the problem of determining time lag and dimension simultaneously, a new method of phase space analog prediction has been advanced with maximizing the historical forecast accuracy.

By using NCEP-RE and ECMWF forecast fields data from 1975 to 2005,introduced analog index and took into account the impact of meteorological element fields and situation fields on the strong precipitation weather in Xinjiang,we set up analog prediction model,moreover choose a medium intensity weather in 2007 with this model to test and verify.

In this article, the design of a resembling forecast system on storm surges based on Mapobjects and its technologic methods are introdued in detail.

The dynamic similarity among three solar chimney models is analyzed,and the infinite volume method was used to validate the similarity among dimensionless parameters of these models.